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PilotWatt continuously scores three actions. The highest score becomes Tonight’s opportunity on Home.
ActionMeaning
ExportSell from the battery at current Agile export rate
StoreKeep energy in the battery for better solar or rates later
Charge EVCharge tonight during cheap import hours
When scores are within ~5 points, PilotWatt defaults conservatively to store and may show a weak or idle signal.

Confidence bands

Confidence is the gap between the top two scores, not a probability:
LabelGap
High confidence≥ 25 points
Moderate confidence≥ 10 points
Low confidence< 10 points

Score factors (summary)

  • Current rate vs 24-hour average
  • Bonus if battery SoC > 50%
  • Bonus if tomorrow’s solar forecast exceeds today
  • Penalty if SoC < 20%
  • Tomorrow vs today solar forecast
  • Bonus when current rate is well below average
  • Penalty if battery nearly full (> 90%)
  • Spread between peak and cheapest overnight rate
  • EV session / departure heuristics when enabled
Exact weights live in the app (lib/domain/optimiser.ts). Update this page when scoring changes.